.svg)
.jpg)
In 2022, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report identified climate change as a key reason for increased vector-borne diseases in Asia, with varying rainfall and temperatures projected to increase the risk of malaria across the continent.
Three years later, in July 2025, 16 deaths from malaria were recorded in Bangladesh, marking its second-highest death toll in a decade amid an increasingly unpredictable climate.
Malaria Surges – Local and Focal
The UN’s Assessment Report reflects a broader recognition of a pattern that has been evident throughout Bangladesh’s malaria elimination journey. In 2013, Bangladesh recorded 26,891 indigenous malaria cases, marking three consecutive years of declining cases from 2010. This progress was disrupted in 2014, when unusual rainfall patterns contributed to a resurgence with cases more than doubling to 57,480 – a 15-year high for the country.
Intensive malaria control efforts led to an impressive 82% decrease in cases by 2018 (10,482 cases), after which heavy rainfalls and widespread flooding across South Asia pushed Bangladesh’s indigenous case count further to 17,219 in 2019. A third notable surge occurred in 2022 when cases soared by 150% to 18,233 from 7,288 the year before, again coinciding with periods of heavy rainfall and flooding that year.
According to Bangladesh’s National Strategic Plan 2024-2030, malaria transmission remains disproportionately concentrated in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, comprising Bandarban, Rangamati, and Khagrachari districts. In 2025, Bandarban and Rangamati accounted for the majority of cases within the country, totalling 49% and 35% of cases respectively.
Bangladesh’s Climate Data
Bangladesh faces significant and evolving climate-related risks with implications for malaria control and elimination already being felt. Nearly 90 percent of South Asia’s population is projected to be at risk of extreme heat by 2030, while a quarter of the population could be at risk of severe floods. These weather conditions not only facilitate the population growth of malaria vectors, but also place substantial pressure on the health system as flooding can disrupt health facilities, infrastructure, as well as the provision of and access to healthcare services.
While cases in 2019 and 2022 did not reach the levels previously observed in 2014, these surges have nonetheless highlighted the country’s vulnerability to climate unpredictability. Data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Bangladesh’s annual changes in precipitation showed that despite the association between case surges and increased rainfall, annual precipitation in 2014, 2019, and 2022 remained below average precipitation levels. Notably, 2014 and 2022 recorded the second and third lowest annual precipitation over a 44-year period. This observation reflects changing climatic patterns across South Asia, characterised by drier dry seasons, and more intense monsoon rainfalls. In the context of Bangladesh where malaria transmission is seasonal, intensifying monsoon seasons are likely to create more favourable conditions for vector breeding during seasonal transmission periods.
Additional evidence on Bangladesh’s drought exposure further illustrates the country’s vulnerability to climate conditions. Two of the three years when Bangladesh experienced upsurges in malaria cases coincided with above-average levels of drought conditions, particularly in 2019.
Rising temperatures further compounds the risk of malaria resurgence in Bangladesh. In recent years, Bangladesh has shown an upward trend in average temperature relative to its baseline levels recorded between 1981 to 2010, rising from 0.3°C above baseline in 2014, to 0.6°C above baseline by 2022, and recently approaching nearly a full degree Celsius above baseline in 2023. As warmer temperatures can accelerate the growth cycle of the Plasmodium parasite within mosquitoes and increase their biting rates, the warming trends in Bangladesh present a compounding threat to the country's malaria elimination gains.
Weathering the Storm
Despite setbacks, Bangladesh has proven its mettle over the years in its fight against malaria. Surges in malaria cases have typically been followed with renewed progress. Following the surge in 2022, Bangladesh recorded two consecutive years of declining cases by 2024, despite COVID-19-related disruptions to malaria service delivery. Additionally, the impact of climate change on malaria transmission has long been recognised in their national malaria strategy, with sector programmes dedicated to climate change as described in their Malaria National Strategic Plan from 2015.
Subsequent efforts have built on this foundation with increasing focus on climate change: the National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination in Bangladesh: 2021-2025 outlined an increasingly refined approach, with a National Malaria Elimination Task Force (NMETF) established aimed at coordinating multi-sectoral work among domestic stakeholders. Among the sectors listed were the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change – the country’s primary governing authority for all environmental matters – and the Ministry of Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs, indicating a targeted approach at a key focus area. The country’s latest National Strategic Plan (2024-2030) has maintained its policy course, with the NMETF considered a key entity for partnership and coordination.
The Way Forward
Today, Bangladesh continues to put in place measures to mitigate the effects of climate change on malaria transmission, with the development of the country’s first Climate-Informed Early Warning surveillance system underway, incorporating artificial intelligence to improve surveillance and response to climate-sensitive diseases, including malaria. Its implementation draws on the aggregated expertise of stakeholders, both domestic and international, illustrating the country’s commitment to eliminating malaria through a multi-sectoral approach.
In parallel, modern data visualisations have also been developed through initiatives backed by the Global Fund and the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, with areas across the country mapped through Geographic Information System mapping tools. These are then supplemented with information surrounding Prevention of Reestablishment indicators to identify parasite incidence, epidemiological data, and meteorological data1.
Looking ahead, Bangladesh’s malaria elimination trajectory will be increasingly shaped by its capacity to adapt to evolving climate risks. As Bangladesh looks towards the future, the country’s established policy frameworks and demonstrated commitment to evidence-based approaches will provide a strong foundation for sustained progress. In the years to come, Bangladesh’s malaria elimination journey could well be one of resilience and adaptation in the face of adversity, culminating in an end to the disease within the country.
Reference:
1 Nur-E-Naznin Ferdous, Senior Programme Manager, BRAC. "Community-driven Surveillance and GIS Integration for MalariaElimination in Bangladesh". Presentation at the APMEN Joint Working Groups Meeting 2026.
.jpg)
